The crypto market is up today, trading at $2.52 trillion. Since yesterday’s low of around $2.46 trillion, the market has rebounded 2.77%. While the surface looks flat on a daily basis, the intraday recovery shows strength.
Bitcoin (BTC) gained 2.54% from its low, and SIREN (SIREN) led the top gainers with a 192% surge.
In the news today:-
- Charles Schwab, the largest brokerage firm in the United States, launched Schwab Crypto, a spot trading service for Bitcoin and Ethereum with a fees of roughly 75 basis points per trade.
- Arthur Hayes, the Co-Founder of BitMEX, argued the market is in a “no-trade zone” driven by AI deflation risks and Middle East uncertainty, backed by near-equal long and short liquidations.
- Trump announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire while a War Powers Resolution on Iran failed by a single vote, easing one regional tension even as the oil crisis deepens.
Crypto Market Forms a Cup and Handle as Liquidations Confirm Arthur Hayes
The total crypto market cap is forming a cup-and-handle pattern on the daily chart. The recent red candle is developing into the handle, while yesterday’s high marks the right rim of the cup. The structure is a classic bullish continuation signal.
The market sits above the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $2.49 trillion. A clean daily close above $2.56 trillion would target $2.65 trillion. The pattern remains intact even on a dip to $2.39 trillion. Only a drop below $2.33 trillion weakens the structure.
The parallel rally in US equities supports the move. The S&P 500 closed in green again yesterday, keeping capital flowing into risk assets across both markets.
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However, Arthur Hayes argued the market is in a “no-trade zone” driven by AI-led deflation concerns and Middle East uncertainty. Liquidation data confirms his view. Over the past 24 hours, CoinGlass data shows $441 million in total liquidations. Longs hit $211 million and shorts reached $230 million.
The near-symmetrical split suggests the market is oscillating without conviction.
Bitcoin Up 2.54% as Institutional Flow Starts to Diverge
Bitcoin price is up 2.54% from yesterday’s low, currently trading near $74,930. This has been one key reason why the TOTAL market cap’s direction points up.
BTC is flirting with a key zone between $73,478 and $76,110. A break above $76,110, rejected once on April 14, would confirm continuation. That would require a daily close 1.55% above the current level.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that tracks institutional participation by combining price and volume, currently reads 0.06. It remains above the zero line, confirming that institutional capital is still net positive.
However, a divergence is forming.
Between March 4 and April 17, Bitcoin’s price trended higher while the CMF trended lower. That means institutional inflows, while still positive, are weakening as price climbs. The divergence does not invalidate the bullish setup yet, but it warrants caution.
If BTC loses $73,478, the next supports sit at $71,850 and $70,534.
SIREN (SIREN) Surges 192% but Hits a Wall
SIREN (SIREN) surged 192% over the past 24 hours. The move took price to the upper trendline of a falling channel that has held since March 22. It was the largest gain among top 100 coins today.
Yet despite the aggressive rally, SIREN failed to break the channel. Price tagged $2.25 before sellers stepped in, forcing a correction.
The broader market strength, fueled by Bitcoin’s move and equity inflows, gave SIREN room to run. However, breaking a three-week falling channel requires more than a single session can provide.
A clean move above $2.25 would open a path toward the $4.73 all-time high. On the 8-hour chart, support sits at $1.75, the 0.236 Fibonacci level. A loss of $1.19, the 0.5 Fibonacci, would expose $0.94 as the next floor. $2.25 separates SIREN’s breakout from a return into the channel.
